UNITED NATIONS: The deepening crisis in the Strait of Hormuz could drive tens of millions into poverty, worsen global hunger, and potentially push the world toward a recession, United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres cautioned on Thursday.
Addressing the media, the UN chief said the closure of the key maritime route is “strangling the global economy,” highlighting its impact on the movement of essential commodities.
He criticised the curbs on free navigation through the strait — a major global chokepoint — noting that disruptions are slowing the supply of oil, gas, fertiliser, and other vital goods.
Guterres warned that even if trade and shipping restrictions were lifted right away, “supply chains will take months to recover, prolonging lower economic output and higher prices.”
Outlining three potential global scenarios, he said the most optimistic outcome would still see economic growth decline from 3.4 per cent to 3.1pc, alongside rising inflation and reduced trade activity.
If tensions — including Iranian actions and US restrictions — persist into midyear, the fallout would be far more severe. In that case, around 32 million people could fall into poverty, while 45 million more may face extreme hunger due to fertiliser shortages and declining agricultural output. He warned that development progress could be undone rapidly.
In the worst-case scenario, where disruptions continue throughout the year, Guterres said, “we confront the spectre of a global recession with dramatic impacts on people, on the economy, and on political and social stability.”
“These consequences are not cumulative. They are exponential,” Guterres stressed, adding that prolonged disruption would make recovery increasingly difficult.
He also pointed to ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at easing tensions between the United States and Iran.
“My message to all parties is clear: Navigational rights and freedoms must be restored immediately,” Guterres said. “Open the Strait. Let all ships pass. Let the global economy breathe again.”
