IMF, World Bank and IEA Warn of Global Fuel Shortages if Strait of Hormuz Remains Blocked

The heads of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank and International Energy Agency (IEA) have warned that prolonged disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger fuel shortages and increase risks to the global economy during the peak summer demand season.

In a joint statement issued on Friday, the leaders of the three organisations said, “Global oil inventories are being drawn down at a record pace in response to the major loss of supply through the Strait of Hormuz.”

They cautioned that “If shipping flows do not return to normal, continued rapid depletion of global oil inventories ahead of peak summer oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere would present increasing risks for fuel security, market conditions, and broader economic resilience.”

The warning comes as the US-Israel war with Iran continues to disrupt the Middle East, with Tehran’s retaliatory actions against Washington’s regional allies effectively blocking the strategic waterway. The Strait of Hormuz normally handles around one-fifth of the world’s energy supplies.

Last month, the IMF, World Bank and IEA established a joint coordination group to manage the economic impact of the crisis, particularly for vulnerable and lower-income countries.

In Friday’s statement, the agencies highlighted that rising energy and fertiliser prices caused by the conflict were disproportionately affecting poorer nations. “Higher fertiliser prices are of particular concern as many countries enter the planting season,” they said.

Earlier this year, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva noted that the conflict had forced a downgrade in global economic growth projections. She estimated that vulnerable economies may require between $20 billion and $50bn in financial assistance to cope with the economic consequences of the war.

The IMF also announced this week that Bangladesh had requested financial support and that discussions were underway to develop a programme aimed at helping the country address the crisis.

The conflict’s economic impact has extended far beyond the Middle East, particularly affecting countries in South and Southeast Asia that rely heavily on oil and gas imports from the Persian Gulf. Disruptions to fertiliser supplies have also raised concerns over food security in import-dependent nations.