Britain’s Met Office has warned that this year’s El Niño could become the strongest recorded in more than a century, with sea surface temperatures expected to reach levels described as “unheard-of” in modern climate records.
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise at least 0.5°C above the baseline average. The phenomenon can alter wind patterns, atmospheric pressure and rainfall around the world, while also contributing to higher global temperatures.
Adam Scaife, the Met Office’s head of long-range forecasting, told the BBC that “We are expecting the biggest El Niño for over a century, peaking at something over three degrees — that is unheard-of in modern climate records.”
Describing the expected phenomenon as “an unprecedented event”, he added, “I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts”.
Scaife said the unusual warming, already reaching nearly two degrees in some areas, was expected to have particularly severe consequences across tropical regions.
He warned of major droughts, saying they could affect parts of South America and the western Pacific.
Temperatures in the region are currently around 2.6°C above the rolling 30-year average, according to the Climate Brink dashboard.
“These are not short-term weather forecasts. We’re talking about really long-term, persistent conditions here. There are well-known impacts on other systems including food, food security,” Scaife said.
The powerful El Niño is also expected to affect weather patterns in the United Kingdom, potentially bringing heavier rainfall and more stormy conditions during autumn, particularly around November.
“Increased rainfall and storminess in the autumn here in the UK around November time” are also expected, Scaife said.
