Pakistan’s Commissioner for Indus Waters, Syed Muhammad Mehar Ali Shah, on Tuesday said he had written to his Indian counterpart four times since April 2025 regarding fluctuations in the flow of the Chenab River but had yet to receive any response.
Speaking at a seminar in Islamabad on the legal and constitutional framework of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), Shah revealed that he had sent another letter the previous night highlighting “significant fluctuations” in the river’s flow.
He described the changes in the Chenab’s flow as more than a technical issue, warning they posed a strategic risk.
“There is no brainer in understanding that data-sharing is the line between natural risk and manufactured vulnerability.”
Shah said Pakistan had sought explanations through the treaty’s communication channels but had received no response from India.
“I will state this carefully and without overclaiming causation. These events required explanation and operational data, and we have been asking India through treaty channels, but there is no response from the Indian side, and no response creates a risk.”
He added that no responsible downstream commissioner could dismiss such fluctuations as routine, stressing that investigating such incidents was one of the core responsibilities of the Indus Water Commission.
According to Shah, Pakistan continued to fulfil its obligations under the treaty despite India placing the agreement in abeyance. He said Islamabad had shared required data, sent official correspondence, requested meetings, inspections and project information, and sought consultations under Article 9, but India had not responded.
He noted that communication had already deteriorated before India’s decision to suspend the treaty, pointing out that the last meeting of the Indus Water Commission was held in May 2022.
Shah warned that the absence of data-sharing increased the risk of unnecessary escalation.
“Hydrological information is not a diplomatic courtesy” but rather an “operational necessity.”
He explained that without timely information, Pakistan was left uncertain whether river flow changes resulted from natural conditions or upstream operations.
Addressing the future of the treaty, Shah called for the immediate restoration of institutional cooperation, including regular commission meetings, data-sharing and inspection visits.
“No unilateral abeyance, no data blackout, no diversion, no fait accompli.”
He stressed that the treaty should function through cooperation rather than suspension, adding that the Indus Water Commission must be allowed to perform its role.
On India’s hydropower projects, Shah said Pakistan was not opposed to lawful hydroelectric development but objected to actions that exceeded treaty provisions.
“Pakistan did not object to ‘lawful hydropower’, but the ‘unlawful control, excessive discretion and opaque operations are a problem’.”
He also expressed concern over India’s reported Chenab-Beas Link Project, saying it could divert 1.9 million acre-feet of water from the Chenab and alter the balance established under the treaty.
Discussing the treaty’s dispute resolution mechanism, Shah said Article 9 provided a structured legal process that allowed unresolved disputes to proceed to third-party adjudication without disrupting the treaty itself.
Referring to recent rulings by the Court of Arbitration, he said the tribunal had reaffirmed that India’s non-participation did not invalidate proceedings, that the treaty’s suspension did not affect the court’s jurisdiction, and that its decisions remained binding.
Shah described the Indus Waters Treaty as a cornerstone of Pakistan’s water security, noting that over 240 million people and more than 80 per cent of the country’s arable land depend on the Indus basin.
“Flow prediction is not a luxury of planning but part of the survival architecture of the state.”
He added that Pakistan had exercised restraint because the treaty was designed to prevent conflict, while emphasising that water security, food production and livelihoods were matters of national security.
Information Minister Attaullah Tarar also addressed the seminar, calling access to the Indus River system an “inalienable right” of Pakistan’s people and describing the treaty as a symbol of peace and regional stability.
He said the agreement could not be amended, revoked or suspended unilaterally, arguing that any changes required the mutual consent of both countries.
Former foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari also spoke at the event, comparing the strategic importance of the Indus River to the Strait of Hormuz.
He argued that just as lasting peace in the Gulf depended on open access to Hormuz, sustainable peace between Pakistan and India required the full restoration of the Indus Waters Treaty.
Bilawal described any attempt to restrict Pakistan’s water as the “weaponisation of water” and urged Pakistan to defend the treaty through legal, diplomatic and international forums while strengthening domestic water conservation and infrastructure.
Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar reiterated Pakistan’s position that the treaty remained legally valid and binding despite India’s unilateral decision to place it in abeyance.
He warned that any attempt to deprive Pakistan of its treaty-allocated waters would carry serious implications for regional peace and stability, while reaffirming Pakistan’s commitment to resolving disputes through diplomacy and international law.
